주식투자와 재산관리

김상경집사
5/10/2009


 

주식투자와 재산관리

1. 주식: 기업의 지분, 최소단위, 유가증권, 의사결정 vs 회사채권, 어음,차입금(부채)


2. 주식의 종류: 보통주, 우선주(preferred stock), convertible preferred stock, vs warrant, option,


가. 규모: 대형주
중형주
소형주

나. 가치, 성장성:
Growth stock: 연15%

Value stock: underpriced stock ( PE ratio, PB ratio, high dividend yield- intrinsic value)

다. Blue chip: industrial leaders- large in size, good profit, growth, dividends…

라. Income stock: REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust)- 90% of income : AMB, DRE, 등

마. Penny stock: under $5, or less than $2M of tangible assets

바. Defensive stock: Food, Utility, unaffected by business fluctuation,


사. Cyclical stock: business cycle- housing, industrial equipment,


3. 주식시장
가. Index(종합주가지수)----Dow Jones Ind(1896). SP500(1957) Wilshire5000(1974),


NYSE Composite, Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100(QQQQ) AMEX,

SP100(OEX), Dow utility ind. Dow transportation ind.


나.거래용어: Symbol, volume, div &yield, P/E, EPS,
52weeks high( year) and low, market cap, Volume(average vol)

Price : ask, bid, last trade, opening, closing,


4. 주가 변화의 요인.
가. 내적요인: 주식가격은 모든 참가자의 기대, 공포,바람, 경제상황 등의 총합계, six month ahead

수익성(실적발표): P/E ratio--- SP500의 최고P/E 는 44로 2000년,최저는 7로 1982 현재는 12.

성장력, 경쟁력, 기술수준, 경영진, CATCH THE MAIN, LARGE MOVEMENT, distort by manipulation
개인의 바램의 눈( positive news만본다) NEVER, SEE WHAT IS THERE, 객관적인 평가, 눈.

나. 외적요인:
• 수요/공급, 투자자의 평가, 주식시장의 움직임(상승, 하강, 보합),
Analyst UP/Downgrade, Credit ratings (Standard & Poor's and Moody's).
• Economic Indicator:
-total output, income, and spending: GDP, National income, personal income, consumer sentiment
-employment, unemployment and wage: unemployment rate, hourly, weekly wages, initial jobless claims,
-production and business activity: industrial production and capacity utilization rate, new construction
new private housing and vacancy rate, manufacture’s shipment, inventory and orders
Purchasing Managers Index(PMI): 40.1 as of April 09
-Prices: consumer price index, producer price index, (Core rate)
-money, credit and security market: bank credit, consumer credit, interest rate and bond yield,

• Interest Rate: FRB policy, dollar exchange rate,

• Inflation Rate: gold and oil price

• Foreign Exchange Rate: Exporter, Importer

• Oil Price: critical for inflation rate and manufacturing costs

• Business cycle:

다.평균 투자수익율 (1926-1999)
CD/ Treasury Bill Treasury Bond Stock
Growth rate 3.8 5.1 11.3
Less Federal Tax 31% 2.6 3.5 7.8
Less Interest Rate -0.5 0.4 4.7
As of 5/08/09 0.15% 4.27%
T-Note(2yr-10yr): 0.93-3.28
2008.11.14일 기준 SP500: 과거 15년 평균수익율 6.19%, 과거 25년 평균 9.6%,

5. 주식시장의 움직임 분석

가. 3가지 유형
Primary Movement: 수개월에서 몇년간 지속되는 Trend( Bull, Bear), 호황지속,
Sound correction 계속, exceptional현상은 없어지고 정상회복,

Secondary Movement: 수주에서 수개월 PM에 반대방향: Correction, 상승분의 1/3-2/3,
평균 50%, Faster and Sharper, 최저점에서는 횡보, 소량매매,Washout day
대량물량의 투매현상, 초보는 이를 새로운 PM(하락국면) 시작으로 보는 잘못을 범함.

Daily Movement: 몇시간에서 몇일(일주일이내) PM과 같거나 반대.
매일의 주가변화는 중요, 3-4일 되야 structure 형성, Big Trend를 잃지말아야.






나. 3 Stages of Primary Bull Market and 3 stages of Primary Bear Market( Charles Dow)

Stage 1: Accumulation매집- last period of Bear Market, Pessimism, bad Economy and Business Stock price historically low, “Smart Money” accumulate stock. Public has fear and no stock.

Stage 2: Big Move상승- last quite a long period, Eco. and Biz good, stock prices keep rising.
Sound correction, Higher high, higher low persist.

Stage 3: Excess과열- Speculation, high P/E ratio, Inflation, bullish sentiment prevails, 개미등장.
Smart money starts to sell. Stock prices too high, confidence highest.

Stage 1 of Bear Market: Distribution분산---, Business peak, and shows some sluggish sales.
stock starts going down with large volume, technical rebound( still bullish),
smart money continues selling, public still buying, CHECK LOW LOWER? then


Stage 2: Big Move공포- Down trend continue, big and sharp drop happens with large volume
Negative news: business down, profit shrink, Economy and consume subdued
market sell off continue…REACTION RALLY, Resume Lower high and Lower low


Stage3: Despair침체- no hope , prices keep going down, very low, Selloff continue, dump stock,
No buying interest, Business and economy are bad, in the end, stop bleeding…
Price drop taper off with less volume, still bears prevail, still pessimistic.
showing some rally, Reverse the trend first time, maybe, beginning of bull market

6. 투자요령
가. 여유자금
나. 매수시기- 상승추세확인 vs Bottom fishing, Dollar Cost Average,
“Buy rumor, and sell news”

다. Portfolio 구성: 안정성, 배분, value stock, Mutual Fund, 채권, 부동산,
균형적인 투자: Long and SHORT SELL(설명),주식과 채권, 금, Hedge Fund, 파생상품(derivatives)

라. 투자기간: 중장기,

마. 투자기법숙지: Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis-Chartist, 경제흐름파악.

바. Risk Management: 가장중요(손절매를못한다), 반드시 개인별 손해한도 설정(10% 등)
Penny stock, liquidation, Trading rule, 기계적으로 팔아야한다.(STOP SELL 이용)