The Economic hit from Japan quake seen up to $200 Billion
TOKYO — Japan's devastating earthquake and deepening nuclear crisis could result in losses of up to $200 billion for the world's third largest economy but the global impact remains hard to gauge five days after a massive tsunami battered the northeast coast.
As Japanese officials scrambled to avert a catastrophic meltdown at a nuclear plant 240 km (150 miles) north of the capital Tokyo, economists took stock of the damage to buildings, production and consumer activity.
The disaster is expected to hit Japanese output sharply over the coming months, but economists warned it could result in a deeper slowdown if power shortages prove significant and prolonged, delaying or even scotching the "v-shaped" recovery that followed the 1995 Kobe earthquake.
Most believe the direct economic hit will total between 10-16 trillion yen ($125-$200 billion), resulting in a contraction in second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) but a sharp rebound in the latter half of 2011 as reconstruction investment boosts growth.
일본 정부 천문학적 손실 입을 듯
지난주 지진피해로 350억 달러로 추정되는 보험금 청구 이외에도 쓰나미와 원자력 재앙의 피해가 집계되면 천문학적 금액의 금융 손실이 일본 정부에 떨어지게 될 것이라고 뉴욕 타임스(NYT)가 16일 보도했다.
또 일본 보험사들, 글로벌 보험회사와 재보험사들, 헤지펀드 등도 역시 1천억달러가 넘을 것으로 추산되는 피해의 일정 부분을 담당해야 할 것으로 보인다.
보험정보협회에 따르면 지난 1995년 고베 지진 때는 약 1천억 달러의 손실이 발생했지만 보험으로 커버된 것은 30억 달러였다. 나머지는 정부부담이었다는 얘기다.
특히 후쿠시마 원자력 발전소의 피해가 어느 정도에 달할지 여부에 따라 일본 정부가 져야 할 부담은 더욱 커질 수 있다.
일본의 원자력 발전소들은 일본 원자력보험단을 통해 의무 보험에 가입해야 한다.
그러나 이들은 단지 22억 달러의 법적 책임을 갖게 되는 보험을 구입토록 돼 있다. 여기에는 지진 피해나 사업 차질에 따른 피해는 보상범위에 포함돼 있지 않다.
이는 일본 정부가 이 비용을 고스란히 부담해야 된다는 것을 의미한다.
일본 손해보험 시장의 90%를 차지하고 있는 3대 보험사인 MS&AD 인슈어런스, 도키오 마린 그룹, NKSJ는 공동으로 ‘일본 지진재보험(JER)’을 소유하고 있다. 이는 일본 정부가 재정 지원을 하고 있다.
Tsunami Waters Engulf Town
Families Search Rubble in Japan For Loved Ones
Computer Projection shows Japan Tsunami
Family Returns Home, Finds Everything Gone
Japan Trapped in a Nuclear Nightmare
An official in a full radiation protection suit scans an evacuated woman and her dog with a geiger counter to check radiation levels in Koriyama city in Fukushima prefecture on March 16
A Mexican Red Cross member, center, points toward a dead body found by a sniffer dog to French firemen during a search operation in Sendai on March 16.
A young boy wearing a face mask sits on a suitcase inside Tokyo station on March 16. Radiation fears and the threat of another earthquake have prompted people to leave Tokyo by any means possible.
One of several rescue and recovery teams move through what is left of the village of Kesennuma City.
About 16,000 people lived in Minamisanriku before the tsunami hit. More than half of them are still missing.
Two bodies lies covered in the rubble of a classroom in the destroyed village of Minamisanriku.
Tokyo residents cram into the Shinkansen bullet train as they leave Tokyo heading west on March 16.
Heavy snow falls on rubble and rescue workers at a devastated factory area hit by an earthquake and tsunami in Sendai on Wednesday.
Youths carry a woman from a shelter in Miyako, northern Japan on Wednesday.
A boy waits for boiled water to cook instant noodles outside a shelter in Sendai, in Miyagi prefecture on Wednesday.
Police officers carry the body of a victim in Rikuzentakata, Miyagi on Wednesday.
A pump attendant holds a placard telling motorists not to queue up to prevent traffic congestion outside the petrol station in Akita, northwest of Japan on Wednesday, as the country rations fuel following the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that devastated the eastern coast of Japan.
Two bodies of victims from last week's earthquake and tsunami are left covered in blankets in the devastated town of Rikuzenmaeda in the Iwate prefecture of Japan, on Wednesday. The National Police Agency said Tuesday afternoon that 2,722 people had died, and many thousands were still missing. Bodies continued to wash ashore at various spots along the coast after having been pulled out to sea by the tsunami’s retreat.
Former South Korean comfort women, who served as sexual slaves for the Japanese Imperial Army during World War II, pay silent tribute to victims of Friday's earthquake and tsunami in Japan, in front of the Japanese embassy in Seoul, Wednesday, March 16.
Fans of the Seattle Sounders FC hold signs in honor of victims of the recent earthquake in Japan prior to the game against the Los Angeles Galaxy at Qwest Field on Wednesday, March 15 in Seattle.
Members of the Spanish Parliament applaud while Japanese Ambassador to Spain, Fumiaki Takahashi, attends a Parliament session in Madrid, March 15, where an official declaration of support and solidarity with Japan has been approved.
California Croll, 4, makes a donation of her family's piggy banks during a "drive-through" fundraiser benefiting the American Red Cross Japan Tsunami Fund at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on March 15. While the world is focused on the human tragedy in Japan, the mega-disaster may also bring a diplomatic opening as the United States and and other nations reach out to help. The United States, whose relations with its longtime ally have been strained over military issues, has mounted a wide-scale relief effort dubbed "Operation Tomodachi" -- the Japanese word for friendship.
Radiation Concerns in Japan
Blast Hits Crippled Japanese Nuke Plant
Japanese Plant Workers do their last-ditch Efforts
Tsunami Wave Hitting Kesennuma City
Vehicle headlamps illuminate the disaster area of the town of Yamada in Iwate prefecture on March 16. The official toll of the dead and missing following a devastating earthquake and tsunami that flattened Japan's northeast coast has topped 11,000.
A rescue worker stands on top of a burned vehicle looking for more bodies amid the rubble of Kesennuma,
People retrieve gasoline from a car damaged by the tsunami in Minamisanrikucho in Miyagi prefecture.
Policemen gather around the covered bodies of victims retrieved from the debris in Rikuzentakata,
People wanting to leave Tokyo wait to enter the Immigration Bureau of Japan on March 16 in Tokyo.
Evacuees from the west side of Fukushima receive radiation scans in Nihonmatsu city, March 16.
A man lights a candle in memory of the victims of Japan's powerful earthquake in a park named in honor of the Japanese city of Sendai on Monday, March 14 in Minsk, Belarus.
People lay flowers and light candles in front of the Japanese Embassy in Moscow, Russia, Monday in memory of the earthquake's victims.
Workers are struggling to avert meltdowns at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, seen in a satellite photo at 9:35 a.m. Wednesday.
The Fukushima Daiichi plant on Tuesday. Reactors No. 3, left, and No. 4, center, are among those that have been damaged.
Employees of Tokyo Electric Power, the plant owner, at a news conference in Tokyo on Wednesday.
Firefighters continued a search operation under snow in Minamisanriku on Wednesday.
A campfire provided heat, and newspapers information, in Otsuchi.
Members of Japan's Self-Defense Forces searched through debris in Ofunato, Miyagi Prefecture.
Firefighters operated heavy machinery in the snow to search for survivors under an overpass in Otsuchi
Evacuees from an elder care facility rested at a shelter in Kesennuma.
Evacuees, right, received lunch boxes from volunteers at a shelter in Koriyama, Fukushima Prefecture
A woman shopped for food from almost empty shelves at a supermarket in Morioka.
A boy was among those waiting in line outside a gas station in Kamaishi.
A boy and his family were rescued by Japan's Self-Defense Forces in Ishinomaki, Miyagi Prefecture.
A man walks past a collapsed house during heavy snowfall at a factory area devastated by an earthquake and tsunami in Sendai, northern Japan, March 16, 2011
Heavy snow falls on a factory area devastated by an earthquake and tsunami in Sendai, northern Japan, March 16, 2011.
A woman walks past snow-covered rubble in Minamisanriku Town, Miyagi Prefecture in northern Japan, after an earthquake and tsunami struck the area, March 16, 2011.
Heavy snow falls as members of the Japan Self-Defense Force arrive at the devastated residential area in Otsuchi, March 16, 2011.
Heavy snow falls on rubble and rescue workers at a devastated factory area hit by an earthquake and tsunami in Sendai, northern Japan, March 16, 2011.
Medical staff screen the boots of a person who is concerned over radiation exposure at a public welfare center in Niigata, northern Japan March 16, 2011.
Evacuees, who fled from the vicinity of Fukushima nuclear power plant, sleep at an evacuation center set in a gymnasium in Kawamata, Fukushima Prefecture in northern Japan
Destruction is Surreal
Devastation in Iwate
Tsunami Washed Away Miyako
A Japanese home is seen adrift in the Pacific Ocean, in this photograph taken on March 13, 2011 and released on March 14.
A house lies damaged in a river going through Kesennuma City on March 15, 2011i.
A man walks past mountains of debris in Minamisanrikucho, Miyagi Prefecture in northern Japan
An aerial view of remaining apartment buildings in Minamisanriku, Miyagi Prefecture in northern Japan
Smoke rises from the earthquake and tsunami-devastated town of Sendai
A river of debris is seen between destroyed houses in Kesennuma City on March 15, 2011.
Aircraft covered with mud are seen at a Japan Air Self-Defense Force base in Higashimatsushima
A ship is swept by waves after a tsunami and earthquake in Kamaishi City in Iwate Prefecture
A sailboat sits among debris in Ofunato, Iwate Prefecture, March 15, 2011.
A car sits submerged in water in Minamisanriku town, Miyagi Prefecture in northern Japan, March 16, 2011.
Rescue workers search through rubble in an area hit by an earthquake and tsunami in Otsuchi March 15.
Cars and destroyed homes swept by a tsunami in Kesennuma City, Miyagi Prefecture
A tugboat sits among debris in Ofunato, Iwate Prefecture, March 15, 2011.
Japan Tsunami Aftermath
Japan Struggles to Cope With Disaster
Rescue Crews in Tsunami-ravaged Village
Wobbling High-Rise Buildings in Shijuku, Tokyo
Heavy snow falls on a factory area devastated by an earthquake and tsunami in Sendai, March 16, 2011.
A ship swept inland is seen amid debris on a street in Hachinohe, Aomori prefecture.
Debris is strewn over an area affected by an earthquake and tsunami in Miyako, Iwate Prefecture,
A man walks at a village destroyed by earthquake and tsunami in Rikuzentakata in Iwate prefecture,
Sailors from the Naval Air Facility Misawa help a Misawa City employee transport salvageable fishing equipment, on Tuesday, March 15, 2011, in Misawa, northern Japan. More than 120 Sailors and Airmen from the air base joined city workers and members of the community in the relief effort.
Naval Aircrewman 3rd Class Mathias Lane, left, from U.S. Navy Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron (HS) 14 assesses the immediate needs of residents affected by the earthquake and subsequent tsunami, on Tuesday, March 14, 2011, in Miyagi Prefecture, Japan
Members of the U.S. rescue team are seen with their sniffer dogs in a tsunami-hit area in Ofunato, Iwate Prefecture, Japan, Tuesday, March 15, 2011.
U.S. search and rescue team members search through the rubble in Ofunato, Iwate Prefecture, northern Japan, on Tuesday, March 15, 2011
U.S. search and rescue dogs sit on the floor of a gymnasium after arriving with their handlers at the Setamai school, in Sumita, northern Japan, Monday, March 14, 2011. Two search and rescue teams from Fairfax County, Virginia, and Los Angeles County in the U.S. and a team from the U.K. with combined numbers of around 225 personnel have arrived in northern Japan to help in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami
People walk in the rubble in Minamisanriku town, Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan
People ride bicycles with the backdrop of a flooded road in Shiogama, Miyagi prefecture,
A large tank sits on a debris-covered field in the city of Iwanuma in Miyagi prefecture
Residents walk on a street in Tagajo, Miyagi prefecture
People walk on a road covered with vehicles and debris in Tagajo, Miyagi prefecture
Residents collect what they can retrieve from their destroyed house at Sendai,
People walk through debris along a road in Sendai city, Miyagi prefecture
A man inspects the inside of his home damaged by tsunami.
Vehicles remain overturned at Oarai town, Ibaraki prefecture, Japan,
Destroyed oil tank at generating power plant in Minami Soma, Fukushima
Headlights illuminates a disaster area of Yamada Japan. The official death toll and missing has topped 11,000, with 3,676 comfirmed dead as of March 16, 2011.
Soldiers look for victims amid the debris in Natori area.
Local residents gather their belongings from a tsunami damaged home in Kesunnuma.
Reico Miura, 68, cries as she looks for her sister's son.
Soldiers walk through snow-covered ruins in Kamaishi, Japan.
A Long Way From Normalcy
Local and international aid agencies and thousands upon thousands of volunteers and rescue workers are working to ensure that quake and tsunami survivors are fed, sheltered, and clothed, and that anyone still trapped beneath rubble, atop roofs, or -- as the world witnessed in one incredible instance -- adrift at sea is found before it's too late. Above: Japanese residents queue for food in Sendai, Japan, March 14, 2011.
More Victims
A Japanese soldier stands next to a row of bodies recovered in Natori, March 16, 2011.
Doing Her Part
Neena Sasaki, 5, carries family belongings from her destroyed home in Rikuzentakata.
Home
A family looks at the area where their house used to stand in Ozuchi, March 15, 2011.
A Soldier Searches
A Japanese Self-Defense Force soldier look for victims in Natori, March 16, 2011.
Nursing
A staff member (right) of a nursing home takes care of elderly people at a shelter in Tamura after they were evacuated from the area near nuclear plants in Fukushima prefecture, March 13, 2011. Japan desperately tried to bring an overheating and aged nuclear reactor under control in the days after the quake, as efforts to cool the core -- and prevent a full meltdown -- proceeded at a furious pace.
Grim Procession
Soldiers carry a covered body, Higashimatsushima, Miyagi prefecture
Hand to Hand
Local residents shuttle relief supplies from a helicopter in the town of Onagawa, Miyagi prefecture, March 14, 2011.
Roof Work
Rescue workers check for survivors near a tsunami-devastated house, Natori, March 13, 2011.
Carrying the Dead
Japanese rescuers carry the body of a tsunami victim in Sendai, March 13, 2011.
British Search and Rescue, Ofunato, Iwate Prefecture, March 15, 2011
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